Much has been made about UConn's incredible performance so far this year in the men's NCAA basketball tournament. Their dominance has been extremely impressive almost any way you slice it, especially when you combine it with their national championship run from last year. I won't regurgitate all the statistics you've probably read elsewhere here. Three, however, ought to be mentioned:
First, UConn is the first team to ever win 10 straight NCAA tournament games by double-digits (so 10+ points).
Second, as a well researched ESPN article highlighted yesterday, UConn has also covered the betting spread 10 times in a row as well, which hasn't been done since Villanova did it 11 times in a row in 1985 (the first year the tourney expanded to 64 teams). Last year might have been one thing, since UConn arguably was flying under many people's radars as a 4 seed. This year, however, that certainly isn't the case, as they were the number 1 overall seed in the tournament, and the pre-tournament favorite to win it all.
Third, few people are aware that in UConn's second round NCAA game this year against Northwestern, it went an abysmal 3-22 from 3PT range, and still won by 17 points. If most teams do that, they're probably losing by 17 points, not winning. UConn scoring 75 points in the first place, let alone winning by 17, is incredible considering that poor shooting performance from 3. But this versatility is what may make this UConn team different. They can beat you in all kinds of ways.
It should be said, by the way, that Northwestern was no slouch of a team, finishing 4th in the Big Ten this year and who was awarded a #9 seed in the NCAA tournament. Even as of today, Northwestern is still ranked 40th in the nation per KenPom, which is higher than NC State, who is now in the Final Four.
Probably even more impressive is that UConn then went 3-17 from 3 against Illinois in the Elite 8...and won by 25. You'd think a hot team could potentially take advantage of this, but UConn's ability to manufacture points elsewhere, combined with its solid defense (they gave up 58 points against NW and only 52 against Illinois) make that more complicated than it seems.
Given UConn has two games left, it has a chance to tie and potentially beat Villanova's cover record from '85, not to mention extend their own 10+ point win streak in the NCAA tournament as well. But how does UConn's tournament dominance stack up against comparable teams from the past? And what does UConn's performance so far likely say about its future? I took a look at teams that had made the Final Four who had won their previous 4 NCAA tourney games by at least 10 points to try and gain some insight, and below are my most interesting findings. Data from the table below is predominantly from SportsOddsHistory.com and SportsReference.com, two incredible websites in case you aren't already aware of them.
20 teams since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 have won their first four tourney games by at least 10 points, including this year's UConn team. That makes 19 before this year's UConn team.
Prior to UConn last year, all of these 19 teams were 1 or 2 seeds in the tournament. 14 were 1 seeds, and 5 were two seeds. As noted above, UConn was a 4 seed last year (but is a 1 seed this year).
13 of the 19 teams before this year won their Final Four games (68%). 9 of the 13 ended up winning the National Championship (69% of the Final Four winners, 47% of our dominant teams group overall).
Of the 13 teams that won their Final Four game, the average margin of victory was 9 points, and the average pre-game spread for all 19 teams' Final Four games was -4.8 points (for all you non-bettors out there, a negative point spread indicates the team was the favorite by that many points).
Notably, despite their dominance, four of the 19 teams that won their previous four NCAA tourney games by 10+ points were actually underdogs in the Final Four. This happened to Oklahoma in the 1988 tournament, Duke in 1991, Indiana in 1992, and then Arizona in the 1994 tourney.
Two of those four teams won outright (Oklahoma, who was a 2.5 point underdog in 1988, despite being a #1 seed, and Duke, a #2 seed who was a huge 9 point underdog to UNLV in 1991; UNLV had beaten Duke by 30 in the previous year's national championship game, and by the time they played again, UNLV was on a 45 game win streak). The two teams who lost (Indiana in '92 and Arizona in '94) failed to cover the spreads of 2.5 in each game.
Final Four underdog Oklahoma would subsequently be a huge 8 point favorite in their national title game in '88 against #6 seed Kansas, only to be upset and lose by 4. Duke was a more modest 3.5 point favorite in the Natty in '91 after de-throning UNLV, but instead beat Kansas (that year a #3 seed), 72-65.
Altogether then, the four dominant NCAA tourney teams that were underdogs in the Final Four went a combined 3 for 6 against-the-spread (ATS) in their respective Final Four and national championship games.
UConn being an 11.5 point favorite ties for the second largest Final Four pre-game favorite spread amongst our group of dominant double-digit winning teams. It also is the second highest Final Four spread period since 1985. Besides Duke being 9 point underdogs against UNLV (remember Duke was the dominant team that season in the NCAA tourney, not UNLV, though the latter of whom was actually -160 at the beginning of the tournament to win it all that year, the shortest odds on record), undefeated Gonzaga was a 14.5 point favorite over Cinderella #11 seed UCLA in 2021, Duke was an 11.5 point favorite over #1 seed Michigan St. in 1999 (which appears to be the most a #1 seed has ever been an underdog in any NCAA tourney game), and North Carolina was a 10 point favorite over #10 seed Syracuse in 2016.
Though they kept their undefeated season alive, Gonzaga did not cover in '21, as they only won by 3, nor did Duke in '99 (they won by 6 over MSU). North Carolina covered in 2016, however, winning by 17 over Syracuse.
Gonzaga's 3 point victory over UCLA came on an unbelievable last second half-court shot by Jalen Suggs in a crowd-less stadium in what was one of the craziest yet bizarre scenes in the history of college basketball.
Notably, though they all won their Final Four games, none of these three heavily favored teams ended up winning the national title.
The '99 Duke team would also be a heavy favorite over #1 seed UConn in the National Championship game at -9.5 points (this seems to be the second largest a #1 seed has ever been an underdog, behind the Duke MSU game from that same year's Final Four cited above), only to lose to Khalid El-Amin, Rip Hamilton & Co. by 3 and see their 32 game win streak snapped in one of the best national championship games ever.
The 2016 Carolina team would be a small favorite (2 points) over Villanova in the 2016 title game, only to lose on a last second 3 point shot by Kris Jenkins in arguably the greatest finish of any national title game ever.
Then in 2021, in what was one of the few times in recent memory where the clear two best teams from the regular season faced off in the NCAA Final, Davion Mitchell and Baylor absolutely blitzed Gonzaga (who was again favored, though this time by only 4.5 points), winning by 16 points in a game that was never close, and slamming the door shut on Gonzaga's undefeated season.
Altogether 8 of the tournament dominant teams covered their spreads (whether they were favorites or underdogs) in their Final Four games, and 10 did not (8/18 = 44%). One was a push (2012 Kentucky won by 8 over Louisville and was favored by 8).
In the national title games, all 13 of the dominant teams that won their Final Four games would be favored (and by an average of 6.3 points). 8 of 13 covered in the Natty, and as noted above, 9 of the 13 won the game and the title.
Lastly, you might wonder how UConn's incredible 28 point average margin of victory (MOV) stands up compared to these other teams. This margin is actually tied for third on the list with Kentucky's 1996 National Championship team (who also had a 28 point average MOV). Ranked ahead of both the '24 UConn Team and the '96 Kentucky team are Kentucky's '93 team (who had an incredible 31 point average MOV, winning every game by more than 21), and Duke in 1999 (who had a 30 point average MOV). We've already noted that Kentucky's dominant team in '96 was able to seal the deal. However, as we also noted above, Duke did not win the title in '99, despite being favored by an incredible 124.5 combined points in their pre-Final Four games (this is by far the most all time, and this compares to '24 UConn's 73, which puts them tied for 7th all-time). Kentucky's 1993 team also did not win the title, succumbing to Michigan's Fab Five in the Final Four as 6.5 point favorites, 81-78 in overtime.
Given Michigan had only won their previous four tourney games by a margin of 31, 2, 8, and 5 (compared to Kentucky's win margins of 44, 21, 34, and 25), and against seeds no higher than 7 (they also barely survived their second round game against #9 seed UCLA, winning by 2 in OT), it's super interesting that Vegas was able to sniff out a pretty competitive game here (a 6.5 point spread isn't exactly tight, but given Kentucky's dominance, it's not exactly huge either, especially in the context of Final Four game spread history, as the table below shows). Both were #1 seeds that year, and Kentucky was 26-3 coming into the tournament while Michigan was 26-4.
In summary, despite fairly typical favorite odds of +470 to win it all pre-tournament, UConn's performance so far in the tournament itself puts it in the upper echelons of our group of historically dominant tournament teams. Ironically enough, however, while dominant tournament teams do historically tend to not only win their Final Four games, but win it all, the most dominant teams, and the most favored teams, actually don't have a great track record of closing the deal. Nor do they have a great track record of making bettors money. Case in point are the 1991 UNLV team, the 1993 Kentucky team, the 1999 Duke team, the 2015 Kentucky team, or the 2021 Gonzaga team, all of whom were historically great teams.
All that being said, despite a formidable and dangerous Alabama team staring them in the face, along with a Purdue team potentially waiting in the wings that is starting to feel like Virginia circa 2019 2.0, it would still be a pretty major shock to see this versatile and resilient UConn team not repeat as champs. Whether because of pressure, or because of other teams dying to knock out the favorite, the tournament has a way of slipping away from the historically great teams. But this UConn team feels a bit more like the Florida teams of the mid 2000's than it does the 1999 Duke Team, 2015 Kentucky team or the 2021 Gonzaga team. There's pressure on them for sure, but it doesn't feel enormous, and UConn is playing and acting accordingly. After all, if you can go 3-22 from 3 and still beat a good team, that has to ease your nerves if you come out laying bricks early on in a big game. Nonetheless, we'll find out soon enough whether UConn succumbs to the checkered history of dominant tournament teams, or makes some of it themselves. Enjoy one of the great sports weekends of the year!
